NFL Week 3 picks, odds: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Payments thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

NFL Week 3 picks, odds: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Payments thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

I used to be going to start out issues off right here by making enjoyable of the Browns for his or her big choke job in opposition to the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an equally massive choke job in Week 2: I went 5-11 in opposition to the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is actually the identical factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her recreation. That factor has cursed the workforce and my picks. In case you’ve ever seen “The Ring,” the identical factor occurs if you have a look at Brownie the elf, besides you do not die, you simply get your picks fallacious. 

The excellent news for me is that I do not consider in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I must be simply advantageous making my picks this week. Though I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Talking of the picks, let’s get to them.

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder which you could take a look at the weekly picks from each NFL professional by clicking right here. I get 2.3 cents each time somebody clicks by way of on that hyperlink, so be sure to click on early and infrequently. Really, that is not true, I feel the cash truly simply goes to the price range CBS has allotted for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Talking of Brinson, he is the host of the Choose Six Podcast, and simply in case I have not made it clear over the previous two weeks, I will be becoming a member of him three days per week on the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Though I am solely on three days per week, there is a new episode each single day from Monday by way of Friday and it’s best to attempt to pay attention as usually as attainable (You possibly can hearken to Tuesday’s episode beneath and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 3 picks

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

If I’ve observed one factor in regards to the Steelers this season, it is that they principally present up each week with no offensive recreation plan after which make it up as they go alongside. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been understanding nicely for them to date and I feel individuals are beginning to discover. I imply, we have barely performed two weeks and gamers are already beginning to complain in regards to the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have not learn evaluations that unhealthy since “The Emoji Film” got here out. On the charge he is going, Matt Canada may be teaching in Canada by the top of the season. You already know issues are going badly when a retailer is utilizing your identify to attempt to get followers drunk. 

I am going to have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The one factor about this recreation is that I do not know which workforce goes to bounce again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced by three to the Patriots thanks largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the ultimate 90 seconds, which I suppose should not even have shocked me in any respect since no NFL workforce is healthier than the Browns at discovering unbelievable methods to lose. 

The Browns had the sort of emotional loss that may result in a letdown the next week and I feel we would see that on this recreation. That being mentioned, even when the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not adequate to reap the benefits of it. By two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of these recreation have been determined by three factors or much less, so clearly, I cannot be predicting a blowout, however I might be predicting an upset. 

The choose: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

I do not know the way it occurred, however this recreation is one way or the other the one one on the schedule this week that can characteristic two undefeated groups enjoying in opposition to one another. I am not often one to inform individuals what to do with their lives, however if in case you have plans with somebody at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, it’s best to positively cancel these plans so you’ll be able to watch this recreation. Effectively, until you are performing open coronary heart surgical procedure on a cat or choosing up your toddler at a celebration or taking your grandma to play BINGO. 

If these are your plans, please do not cancel these. I might really feel horrible if grandma missed BINGO since you listened to some man who went 5-11 ATS along with his picks final week. To be sincere, I most likely may have made extra money enjoying BINGO in Week 2 than choosing video games. 

Anyway, I have been watching the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless do not know what to make of them. I do suppose that they are positively good, however I am simply undecided how good. Positive, they’ve scored eight touchdowns in simply two video games, however half of these got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns in opposition to Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they’ve solely scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens workforce that had a nasty protection and a Patriots workforce that had a nasty offense, so what is going on to occur after they play a Payments workforce that is not unhealthy at both of these issues? It is most likely not going to finish nicely for the Dolphins. 

The opposite drawback for the Dolphin is that they all the time appear to battle in opposition to Josh Allen. The Payments have gained seven straight video games on this rivalry and people seven wins have come by a mean of 19.3 factors per recreation. Josh Allen has thrown a number of landing passes in each recreation he is ever performed in opposition to the Dolphins, which positively is not excellent news for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel in opposition to sure groups. We have seen Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Payments, now we’re seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I feel that domination continues on Sunday. 

The choose: Payments 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of getting this recreation moved to South America might be Rodgers’ finest likelihood at profitable this week. If he cannot pull that off, which means he will need to play in Florida and if there’s one factor I learn about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates enjoying within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of eight video games in his profession in Florida and he is gone 3-5 in these video games. Even worse, because the begin of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in these two video games, which is insane when you think about that he is solely thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed exterior of Florida. For these of you who hate math, that is two interceptions per recreation in Florida and 0.2 when enjoying exterior of Florida. He’s actually throwing interceptions at a ten occasions increased charge in Florida than he does at another time. It is mindless, which I suppose sort of is smart, as a result of nothing in Florida is smart. I imply, we’re speaking a couple of state the place a man is attempting to interrupt the world report for largest assortment of “Titanic” films. 

And no, that tweet will not be referring to me. I solely have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is unquestionably not the world report. 

Anyway, should you’ve ever been to Florida in September, you will have observed that the air is so thick that you simply really feel such as you’re respiratory out of a straw crammed with maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… You already know what, I am going to simply let Gronk clarify how a lot you sweat. 

Additionally, let’s not overlook about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from enjoying faculty soccer in California to enjoying skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means actually needed to take care of Florida climate and I am beginning to suppose he may truly hate it, which might clarify why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. However, the Buccaneers apply in that climate every single day, so I am guessing they’re used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you are going to hear about is how this recreation is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the greater matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. excessive humidity and I am taking excessive humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time in opposition to Brady and I feel he may need a good worse report in opposition to excessive humidity. 

I must also observe that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted one another because the NFC title recreation in January 2021. In case you do not keep in mind that recreation, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably determined to kick a area objective with two minutes left in a recreation the place the Packers have been down eight. 

It has been almost two years since that occurred and I nonetheless cannot work out why he tried that area objective. The one factor that is smart for me right here is to take Buccaneers by a area objective. 

The choose: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Denver Broncos

I do know we’re solely two video games into the season, however I’ve already seen sufficient of the Broncos offense this yr to know that Russell Wilson throwing the ball would not actually appear to be working. Each time Wilson drops again to move, I’ve observed that considered one of three issues appears to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete move or the play is blown lifeless as a result of the Broncos get referred to as for a delay of recreation. 

As you most likely observed, all of these issues are unhealthy. If somebody advised me I used to be going to be hit by a bus, shot within the arm or stung by a hive of lethal bees each time I left my home, I might NEVER go away my home. In case you’re questioning what my bizarre situation has to do with something, I feel what I am saying is that the Broncos can keep away from having three unhealthy choices by NOT throwing the ball on a regular basis. That’s their model of not leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not matter as a result of he solely obtained 15 carries within the recreation. As an alternative of feeding Javonte, they determined to let Wilson preserve throwing the ball, which isn’t best when your QB is just finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did in opposition to the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to seem like Pete Carroll may need been proper about every part. He put a robust working recreation and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the workforce and it may be time for the Broncos to steal that concept. As an alternative of going with the “Let Russ Prepare dinner” philosophy, the Broncos may wish to begin embracing the “Let Russ assist in the kitchen, however do not let him prepare dinner by himself” philosophy. Mainly, the Broncos ought to begin working the ball extra and let that open up the move. 

Though Wilson hasn’t seemed good in any respect this season, if there’s one workforce he can flip issues round in opposition to, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 occasions whereas he was with the Seahawks and in these 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett is sensible, he’ll return and watch these 17 wins to grasp how the Seahawks have been capable of win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed good protection. 3. They Let Russ Prepare dinner.

Please observe that letting Russ prepare dinner is listed final. 

As for the 49ers, they may be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo below middle, however I am undecided that applies after they’re enjoying AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins in opposition to AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The choose: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Newest Odds:

New York Giants

I do not wish to say that this may go down as the best Monday evening recreation of all-time, however I am beginning to suppose it may be attainable. It is the showdown of all showdowns: We now have a quarterback who has by no means misplaced a begin in his profession (Cooper Rush) going up in opposition to a Giants workforce that is undefeated on the season. 

This recreation is the immovable power in opposition to the immovable power and I”m saying that as a result of I do not suppose both offense is actually going to maneuver the ball very a lot on Monday evening. The Cowboys have among the best defenses within the NFL they usually’ve proven that over the previous two weeks by holding each the Buccaneers and Bengals to below 20 factors. The Cowboys offense cannot rating, however they needn’t, as a result of their protection is so good. 

As for the Giants, though they’re 2-0, they have not precisely been lighting up the scoreboard of their wins. The Giants are averaging simply 20 factors per recreation by way of two weeks and it is exhausting to check them topping that quantity since this may seemingly be the perfect protection that they’ve confronted but. 

I really feel like this recreation goes to return right down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, a giant cause the Cowboys misplaced is as a result of they forgot deal with anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers working again averaged 6.05 yards per carry in opposition to the Cowboys and if Barkley can get anyplace close to that quantity, it’ll be a protracted evening for Dallas. 

One thing has to offer on Monday evening: Both Cooper Rush goes to lose his first profession recreation (he is 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first recreation of the season, and I can not consider I am going to do that, however I am taking the Giants although they’ve misplaced six straight Monday evening video games and 9 of their previous 10 to the Cowboys. 

The choose: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remaining

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Final Week

Finest choose: Final week, I predicted that Tom Brady would lastly beat the Saints and guess what occurred? Tom Brady lastly beat the Saints in an everyday season recreation for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston was going to fully soften down by throwing three interceptions within the fourth quarter? After all I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% likelihood he will soften down in some unspecified time in the future and there is a 50% likelihood that meltdown goes to return within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, however it did not occur on the sphere, it occurred on the sideline and the one sufferer was an harmless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two straight video games the place Tampa Bay was enjoying the Saints, which I consider is the NFL report for many consecutive video games smashing a pill in opposition to one workforce. 

Worst choose: For some cause, I picked the Vikings to beat the Eagles and I will need to have forgotten that the sport was being performed on a Monday evening as a result of no sane individual would ever choose Kirk Cousins to win a recreation on Monday evening. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst profitable proportion in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began at the very least 10 Monday evening video games. He was 2-9, and after throwing three interceptions in opposition to the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Choosing Cousins to win in a Monday evening recreation is like choosing a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is mindless, so do not do it, however I nonetheless did it. 

Picks Report

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU total:18-13-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS total: 14-18

You will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a type of issues, he is most likely practising for the meat loaf contest he plans on coming into subsequent month. 

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