Gold, US Shares Are inclined to Outperform

Gold, US Shares Are inclined to Outperform

August FX Seasonality Abstract:

  • the eighth month of the 12 months usually sees a blended efficiency from the US greenback.
  • The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are likely to do nicely in August, whereas the Australian and New Zealand {dollars} carry out poorly.
  • August has been an excellent month for each gold costs and US shares.

The beginning of the month warrants a evaluation of the seasonal patterns which have influenced foreign money markets over the previous few years. For August, our focus is on the final 5 and 10 years, which captures buying and selling throughout the winddown of aggressive central financial institution intervention that started with the 2008/2009 world monetary disaster, not not like the atmosphere we discover ourselves in now.

Nonetheless, as has been the case for the previous 5 months, ongoing ahistorical circumstances scale back the reliability of utilizing seasonality as a significant indicator of value motion. In spite of everything, world commodity markets stay struggling amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and world provide chains are nonetheless grappling with China’s zero-COVID technique. We should conclude that methods based mostly on seasonal tendencies stay much less viable than in earlier years.

Foreign exchange Month-to-month Seasonality Overview – August 2022

Euro Foreign exchange Seasonality (through EUR/USD)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august is a blended month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. For the final 5 years, it has been the fifth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -0.04%. For the final 10 years, it has been the fifth greatest month of the 12 months, with a mean achieve of +0.14%.

Sterling Foreign exchange Seasonality (through GBP/USD)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august is a bearish month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. For the final 5 years, it has been the fourth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -0.46%. For the final 10 years, it has been the third worst month of the 12 months, with a mean lack of -0.33%.

Japanese Yen Foreign exchange Seasonality (through USD/JPY)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august isa down month by USD/JPYfrom a seasonal perspective. Within the final 5 years, it has been the fifth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -0.59%. For the final 10 years, it has been the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a mean lack of -0.19%.

Australian Greenback Foreign exchange Seasonality (through AUD/USD)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august is a bearish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. For the final 5 years, it has been the fourth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -0.52%. For the final 10 years, it has been the third worst month of the 12 months, with a mean lack of -0.85%.

New Zealand Greenback Foreign exchange Seasonality (through NZD/USD)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august isa bassist month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Within the final 5 years, it has been the second worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -1.65%. For the final 10 years, it has been the second worst month of the 12 months, with a mean lack of -1.69%.

Canadian Greenback Foreign exchange Seasonality (through USD/CAD)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august is a blended month for US {dollars}/Canadian {dollars}from a seasonal perspective. Within the final 5 years, it has been the sixth greatest month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -0.08%. For the final 10 years, it has been the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a mean achieve of +0.11%.

Swiss Franc Foreign exchange Seasonality (through USD/CHF)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august is a bearish month for USD/CHFfrom a seasonal perspective. For the final 5 years, it has been the fourth worst month of the 12 months for the pair, with a mean lack of -0.67%. For the final 10 years, it has been the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a mean lack of -0.26%.

Foreign exchange seasonality in US S&P 500

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august isa bullish month by the US S&P 500from a seasonal perspective. For the final 5 years, it has been the sixth greatest month of the 12 months for the index, with a mean achieve of +2.24%. For the final 10 years, it has been the fifth worst month of the 12 months, with a mean achieve of +0.74%.

Foreign exchange Gold Seasonality (through XAU/USD)

Forex Monthly Seasonality: August 2022: Gold and US Stocks Tend to Outperform

august is a bullish month for gold (XAU/USD)from a seasonal perspective. For the final 5 years, it has been the sixth greatest month of the 12 months for the valuable metallic, with a mean achieve of +1.86%. For the final 10 years, it has been the second greatest month of the 12 months, with a mean achieve of +2.02%.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategisyou

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